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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still